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Future Trends in Dentistry Economics

2012
05.19

Economic trends in dentistry give us clues about the industry’s future.

 

We saw how major shifts in dental school enrollments eventually translated into changes in the number and mix of dentists. Some of the major changes in manpower include: a decrease in the number of dentists by the end of this decade, an increased proportion of female dentists, part-time dentists, and specialty dentists, and finally, a dentist-to-population ratio that is currently decreasing and is projected to decrease at least until the year 2020. In this article, we will explore trends in economics.

 

 

Expenditures for dental services increased from just less than $2 billion in 1960 to $70.3 billion in 2002 – a more than 35-fold increase (Figure 1). The U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (formerly the Health Care Financing Administration) have projected the level of expenditures to the year 2013. These projections show expenditures for dental services increasing annually to $126.3 billion by the end of the projection period. That’s an additional 80 percent increase in total expenditures for dental services and an average ­annual increase of 5.5 percent. The expenditure data were divided by the total U.S. population to arrive at expenditures per capita for dental services. Expenditures per capita for dental services increased from $10.86 in 1960 to $244.20 in 2002 – a more than 20-fold increase, or an average annual increase of 7.7 percent. Expenditures per capita are projected to increase to $397.54 by 2013, or an average annual increase of 4.5 percent. Finally, expenditures per active dentist increased from $21,787 in 1960 to $490,566 in 2002; also a more than 20-fold increase, or an average annual increase of 7.7 percent. Expenditures per dentist should rise to $905,189 by 2013 – an average annual increase of 5.7 percent.

 

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Dentist Statistics Report

2012
05.11

Summary

The NHS Information Centre publishes regular information on NHS primary care dental services. Detailed reports which cover each financial year are supported by quarterly updates. The data is provided from the NHS Business Service Authority Dental Services Division (NHS BSA DSD) payment systems. This report covers all activity carried out in 2006/07 and 2007/08; the first and second years of the new dental contract system. It also includes updated data for the first three quarters of 2007/08 which accounts for treatments reported late.

Activity

36.0 million Courses of Treatment (CoTs) were carried out in 2007/08, an increase of 937,000 (2.7 per cent) on the previous year.

77.0 million Units of Dental Activity (UDAs) were carried out in 2007/08, an increase of 3.3 million (4.5 per cent) on the previous year.

more than half (53.6 per cent) of CoTs carried out in 2007/08 were within Band 1, compared with 54.2 per cent in 2006/07. Band 2 treatment accounted for 30.5 per cent of total CoTs in both years, whilst the percentage of total CoTs represented by Band 3 treatments increased by 0.3 percentage points, from 4.4 per cent in 2006/07 to 4.7 per cent in 2007/08. The remaining 11.2 per cent of CoTs were for urgent and other (charge exempt) treatments.

the proportion of CoTs by treatment band varied by Strategic Health Authority (SHA). London had the worst proportion of CoTs carried out in Band 1 (44.1 per cent) but the highest proportion in Bands 2 and 3 (35.8 per cent and 7.9 per cent respectively). East Midlands and South Central had the highest proportion of Band 1 treatments (each 57.6 per cent).

the treatment band with the highest proportion of UDAs was Band 2 in both 2006/07 and 2007/08, although this proportion decreased by 0.7 percentage points from 43.5 per cent to 42.8 per cent. Band 1 accounted for 25.0 per cent of UDAs carried out in 2007/08, compared with 25.8 per cent in 2006/07. The percentage of UDAs represented by Band 3 treatments increased by 1.4 percentage points, from 24.9 per cent to 26.3 per cent. The remaining 5.8 per cent of UDAs in 2007/08 were for urgent and other (charge exempt) treatments.

while more UDAs were undertaken by all SHAs in the second year of the new dental contract systems, 18 PCTs (11.8 per cent of all PCTs) recorded fewer. At a PCT level, the largest percentage increase was 28.3 per cent whilst the largest percentage decrease was 4.4 per cent. PCT level information are contained within the annexes and the factsheet (annex 2).

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Patients Seen

27.0 million patients had seen an NHS dentist in the 24 month period ending 31 March 2008. This represents a decrease of 1.1 million (3.9 per cent) on the 28.1 million patients seen in the 24 months ending 31 March 2006, and a decrease of 1.0 million (3.7 per cent) on the 28.1 million patients seen in the 24 months ending 31 March 2007.

53.3 per cent of the population were seen in the 24 month period ending 31 March 2008. This represents a decrease of 2.5 percentage points on the 55.8 per cent of the population seen in the 24 months ending 31 March 2006, and a decrease of 2.1 percentage points on the 55.4 per cent of the population seen in the 24 months ending 31 March 2007.

19.4 million adults were seen in the 24 month period ending 31 March 2008. This represents a decrease of 913,000 adults (4.5 per cent) on the 20.3 million adults seen in the 24 months ending 31 March 2006, and a decrease of 850,000 (4.2 per cent) on the 20.3 million patients seen in the 24 months ending 31 March 2007.

48.9 per cent of the adult population were seen in the 24 month period ending 31 March 2008. This represents a decrease of 2.7 percentage points on the 51.6 per cent of the population seen in the 24 months ending 31 March 2006, and a decrease of 2.1 percentage points on the 51.0 per cent of the population seen in the 24 months ending 31 March 2007.

7.6 million children were seen in the 24 month period ending 31 March 2008. This represents a decrease of 182,000 (2.3 per cent) on the 7.8 million children seen in the 24 months ending 31 March 2006, and a decrease of 198,000 (2.5 per cent) on the 7.8 million children seen in the 24 months ending 31 March 2007.

the proportion of the minor population seen in the 24 month period ending 31 March 2008 was 69.2 per cent. This represents a decrease of 1.4 percentage points on the 70.7 per cent seen in the 24 months ending 31 March 2006, and a decrease of 1.8 percentage points on the 71.0 per cent seen in the 24 months ending 31 March 2007.

the Dental Services Division (DSD) of the BSA has recently issued PCT level patients seen information for management information purposes. PCTs have recently raised some issues which suggest that the manner in which patients are allocated to PCTs across the various quarters needs to be reviewed. This means that sub-national information on patients seen has not been published in this report. The DSD has confirmed that this problem could only have a minimal impact on the national figures. They have therefore been labelled as provisional pending the review. Further information on this apraisal will be available in due course.

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